When I started guiding first I did so on the basis that there was a number of fish that could be caught on the Wexford coast. These fish could be caught regularly on the tidal patterns and could be caught using both fly and lure methods during normal Summer and Autumn months. This product base was enough for me to encourage international anglers to Ireland during that time, in other words it was valid. It took a lot of time and effort to establish and to verify that base.
My normal expectations are measured and re-measured against that base regularly, its not an unrealistic expectation and it is also matched to the discipline, I don't expect high catch returns from fly fishing in comparison to lure fishing. Nor am I unaware at any time in terms of other influences like weather.
From the simple chart above my expectations for 2004, 2005 and 2006 were pretty much close to reality and then during 2007, 2008 and 2009 these returns dropped and improved slightly again in 2010.
There is a significant decrease in terms of returns versus expectations during 2011 that is not easily identified.